GMP accuracy tracker
How accurate is IPO GMP?
Most IPO sites show GMP before listing and never look back. We track every listed IPO where we have both a pre-list GMP estimate and the real debut gain — so you can judge how much to trust the signal.
Accuracy (±5%)
28%
7 of 25 listings
Average error
15.2%
Mean gap between GMP est. and listing
IPOs tracked
25
Listed with GMP + actual gain data
Within ±5% count
7
GMP called listing within 5 points
Positive listings
27
Actual debut gain ≥ 0%
Negative listings
15
Actual debut gain below issue price
Flat listings (0% debut gain) are counted as positive.
Mainboard vs SME
Grey-market liquidity differs by issue size. Compare how well GMP tracked listing gains across board types.
Mainboard
7 IPOs- Accuracy (±5%)
- 57%
- 4/7 listings
- Avg error
- 6.5%
- Mean GMP gap
SME
18 IPOs- Accuracy (±5%)
- 17%
- 3/18 listings
- Avg error
- 18.6%
- Mean GMP gap
All listings — GMP vs actual
Slide along the chart for IPO details
Why we compare GMP with actual listing gains
Most IPO GMP websites show grey-market quotes before listing — then stop. You rarely see whether that GMP was right on debut day. IPO GMP Track records actual listing performance against the last pre-list estimate so you can judge how reliable the signal was.
That transparency builds trust. You are not guessing whether our GMP numbers are useful; you can see recent IPOs where sentiment matched listing day, and where it missed. Few GMP trackers in India publish this side-by-side history.
Use this chart in your daily IPO routine: check GMP and subscription while an issue is open, apply via your bank's UPI ASBA flow, then come back after listing to see how accurate the GMP was. Over a few issues you learn when GMP is a strong hint and when to lean on the RHP instead.
Across 25 tracked listings: GMP within ±5% of actual listing for 7 of 25 — average gap 15.2%.
How to check GMP accuracy on this chart
The purple line is the GMP-based listing estimate; the green line is the real debut % on NSE or BSE. Slide or drag along the chart to see the IPO name, both percentages, and the gap (Δ) between them.
When the lines stay close, GMP called the listing well. When they diverge, grey-market sentiment overshot or undershot the actual move — useful to remember before chasing the next hot GMP.
The “within ±5%” count is a quick scorecard for recent listings. GMP is unofficial and can change before listing day, so treat this as a trend check, not a guarantee for the next IPO.
How GMP makes your daily IPO life easier
IPO applications lock capital for days. GMP gives you an early sentiment read so you can choose between two open issues when your application budget is limited.
On our home table, pair GMP with subscription: hot GMP plus heavy oversubscription often means strong demand but harder retail allotment. Flat or negative GMP is a nudge to read the RHP before applying.
After listing, this chart closes the loop — something most GMP sites never do. You see real results vs estimates in one place instead of searching exchange prices manually.
- One page for Mainboard and SME GMP, dates, subscription, and allotment links
- Listing premium as a percentage — easier to compare different price bands
- Post-listing accuracy history to improve how you use GMP next time
- Updated twice daily on active issues; listing results added after debut
GMP is not regulated by SEBI and does not guarantee listing price. Always verify the price band, dates, and lot size in the RHP before applying. GMP accuracy report · What is IPO GMP? · How we track IPO data